Canada-U.S. Tariff Timeline 2025

Trade, Tariffs, and Cash Management for the Self-Employed Canadian

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Tariffs Ahead road sign with Canada US flags symbolizing 2025 trade war impact on cross-border businessTariff timeline + strategies to protect your business

Published October 16, 2025  |  Updated November 27, 2025

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By L.Kenway BComm CPB Retired
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Your approach to navigating tariff uncertainty: Sustainable habits beat extreme measures.

Understanding Key Terms

I've done my best to explain the following trade terms based on my research, but I'm not an import/export expert. If you're actually importing steel, definitely check with a customs broker who knows the ins and outs of these regulations.

What are FTA and non-FTA countries?

FTA (Free Trade Agreement) countries are nations that have signed trade agreements with Canada, providing preferential access to Canadian markets. For steel imports, this category includes:

  • FTA countries (non-CUSMA): South Korea, European Union members, United Kingdom, Japan, Vietnam, and others with bilateral or multilateral trade agreements.
  • CUSMA countries: United States and Mexico (these have separate treatment under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement).

Non-FTA countries are nations without free trade agreements with Canada. Key examples include China, Turkey, India, Russia, Brazil.

The distinction matters significantly for steel imports, as FTA countries receive more favorable quota allocations and tariff treatment than non-FTA countries.

What are tariff-rate quotas (TRQs)?

A tariff-rate quota (TRQ) is a two-tiered import control system for certain steel products. It works by allowing a specific quantity of steel to enter the country each quarter at a lower tariff rate. Once imports exceed this quarterly threshold, any additional steel brought in during that quarter faces a higher surtax.

This mechanism serves a dual purpose. It protects Canada's domestic steel industry from excessive foreign competition (mainly due to global steel overproduction) while ensuring Canadian businesses still have access to the steel they need. The government has based these quota levels on 2024 import volumes.

How do import permits work with TRQs?

All steel imports to Canada require a permit, but there are two types:

1. Shipment-specific permits allow imports at normal tariff rates (if within quota). It must be applied for up to 15 days before shipment arrival. These permits are issued on a first-come, first-served basis until the country's quota is exhausted.

2. General Import Permits (GIP) are used when shipment-specific permits are unavailable or quota is exhausted. Steel imported under GIP automatically faces the 50% surtax.

All importers must also declare the Country of Melt and Pour (COM) and have an active Export and Import Permits Act (EIPA) registration number from Global Affairs Canada.

For Example - Non-FTA Country (China):
A Canadian manufacturer importing steel from China in Q1 2026 faces a quarterly quota of 20% of their 2024 volumes. If they imported 1,000 tonnes in 2024, their Q1 quota is 200 tonnes. They must apply for shipment-specific permits at least 15 days before arrival. If they secure permits for their first 200 tonnes, they pay normal tariffs. Once China's quota is exhausted, they must use a General Import Permit for any additional steel, automatically triggering the 50% surtax.

Example - FTA Country (South Korea):
A construction company importing from South Korea has a quarterly quota of 75% of 2024 volumes. If they imported 2,000 tonnes in 2024, their Q1 2026 quota is 1,500 tonnes. With shipment-specific permits secured in advance, they avoid the surtax on the first 1,500 tonnes. Any imports beyond this, or if permits aren't available, require a General Import Permit and face the 50% surtax.

You'll see TRQs referenced in the steel-related entries below.

Updated November 27, 2025

Overview 2025 U.S.-Canada trade conflict

TRADE TIMELINE: KEY DATES

On this Trade Timeline I'm tracking and updating tariff announcements made by the Canadian and U.S. governments. Do any affect your business?

Legend: 🇺🇸 U.S. Action | 🇨🇦 Canadian Action | 📊 Review/Consultation
Status: 🔴 Escalation | 🔵 Ongoing | 🟢 Reduction  | ⚫ Ended


🔴 ACTIVE ESCALATIONS (Watch These Closely)

🇺🇸 March 4, 2025 - U.S. Tariffs Take Effect

25% on Canadian goods (increased to 35% Aug 1); 10% on energy; CUSMA-compliant goods exempt

🇺🇸 March 12, 2025 - Global Steel/Aluminum Tariffs
50% U.S. tariffs on steel/aluminum (originally 25%, increased June 4)

🇺🇸 August 1, 2025 - US Tariff Escalation
U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods increased from 25% to 35%

🇺🇸 August 1, 2025 - Global Copper Tariffs
50% U.S. tariffs on copper products

🇺🇸 August 29, 2025 - Global De Minimis Elimination
All packages under $800 now subject to duties; transitional flat rates $80-$200 or ad valorem

🇺🇸 October 1, 2025 - US Tariff On Drugs
Announced September 26, 2025 that U.S. will tariff pharmaceutical drugs 100%. While he said October 1st, the date of implementation is not clear until Executive Order is issued ... so watch for it! Status: 🔴 Pending

🇺🇸 October 14, 2025 - US Tariff on Lumber and Wood Products
U.S. Section 232 additional 10% tariffs on imported timber and lumber. This is in addition to the U.S. anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs of about 35% already faced. In addition, there will be a 25% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and upholstered furniture. The executive order does not mention an exemption under CUSMA.

🇺🇸 November 1, 2025 - US Tariff on Trucks
25% global tariff on medium and heavy-duty trucks takes effect (announced October 6, 2025). This tariff applies to vehicles including delivery trucks, garbage trucks, public utility trucks, transit and school buses, tractor-trailers, and heavy-duty vocational vehicles; even those meeting CUSMA's 64% North American content threshold.

🇨🇦 December 26, 2025 - Canadian Steel Quota Tightening & Derivative Tariffs

Non-FTA countries (China, Turkey) reduced to 20% of 2024 levels with 50% surtax above quota; FTA countries (South Korea, Vietnam) set at 75% of 2024 levels with 50% surtax above quota. New 25% tariff on steel derivative products (wind towers, prefabricated buildings, fasteners, wires) applies globally, including U.S. U.S. and Mexico remain exempt from TRQs but subject to separate tariffs.

🇺🇸 January 1, 2026 - US Tariff Increases

30% on upholstered wooden products; 50% on kitchen cabinets/vanities. Status: 🔴 Scheduled

🔵 ACTIVE MEASURES (Ongoing)

🇨🇦 🇺🇸 March 7, 2025 - CUSMA Exemption Established
Canadian goods meeting CUSMA origin rules remain tariff-free

🇨🇦 March 13, 2025 - Canadian Steel/Aluminum Retaliation
25% Canadian tariffs on U.S. steel/aluminum (still in effect)

🇺🇸 April 3, 2025 - Global Auto/Auto Parts Tariffs
25% U.S. tariffs on vehicles and parts; only applies to non-CUSMA content (still in effect)

🇺🇸 April 5, 2025 - Global U.S. 'Liberation' Tariffs
10% baseline reciprocal tariff on all U.S. imports (global, excluding Canada and Mexico)

🇨🇦 April 9, 2025 - Canadian Auto Retaliation
25% Canadian tariffs on non-CUSMA U.S. vehicles (still in effect); there are counter-tariff exemptions for cars imported for sale in Canada if they maintain operations in Canada and complete planned investments

🇨🇦 June 27, 2025 - Global Canadian Steel Quotas Introduced
Non-FTA partners are set at 50% of 2024 quarterly volumes. Shipment-specific permits are required to import within quota at normal tariff rates; imports exceeding quota or using GIP face automatic 50% surtax. Permits must be requested 15 days before arrival. U.S. and Mexico are exempt from TRQs but face separate tariffs. (Tightened December 26, 2025)

🇨🇦 July 31, 2025 - Chinese Steel Surtax
There is a separate 25% surtax for steel with a Chinese "melt and pour" origin.

🇨🇦 October 23, 2025 - Stellantis and GM Counter-Tariff Exemption Reduced
Stellantis 50% annual remissions quota and GM 24.2% annual remissions quota on autos shipped into Canada due to cutting Canadian production 


🟢 REDUCTIONS & ⚫ REMOVALS

🇨🇦 March 4, 2025 -  Canadian Phase 1 Retaliation
25% Canadian tariffs on $30B on targeted U.S. goods (Status: ⚫ Removed Sept 1)

🇨🇦 March 13, 2025 - Canadian Consumer Goods Retaliation
25% Canadian tariffs on $14B miscellaneous U.S. products (Status: ⚫ Removed Sept 1)

🇨🇦 September 1, 2025 - Canadian Tariff Reduction
Canada removed $44B in retaliatory tariffs; kept steel, aluminum, auto tariffs (Status: 🟢 Reduced)

🇨🇦 January 31, 2026 - Canadian Temporary Tariff Remission Ends
The temporary remission from Canadian import tariffs on steel used for manufacturing, packaging food and beverages, and farming ends. This relief began in March 2025. (Status: ⚫ Removed)


📊 REVIEWS & CONSULTATIONS

🇺🇸 September 16, 2025 - USCMA Public Consultations
US government begins 45 days of public consultations with hearings planned for November.

🇲🇽 September 17, 2025 - T-MEC Public Consultations
Mexican government calls for 60 days of public comment ahead of schedule 2026 review.

🇨🇦 September 19, 2025 - CUSMA Public Consultations
Federal government begins a few weeks of consultations with companies, unions, Indigenous leaders, and other stakeholders to prepare for 2026 CUSMA renegotiation. Canada already held formal public consultations between August 17 - October 31, 2024. They published a 'What we heard' report in December 2024 / January 2025.

🇨🇦🇺🇸🇲🇽 July 1, 2026 - CUSMA / USCMA / T-MEC Review
Scheduled review of trade agreement

This timeline focuses on the 2025 U.S.-Canada trade conflict. Other ongoing trade disputes affecting Canadian businesses include longstanding U.S. softwood lumber duties (escalated to over 35% in August 2025 as part of the current trade conflict) and China's retaliatory tariffs on Canadian canola, potash, and other agricultural products as well as seafood (imposed in response to Canada's support for U.S. EV policies and other geopolitical tensions).

For complete details and source documents, refer to:

Baker Tilly: Trade Timeline Analysis
Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP: U.S.–Canada Tariffs Timeline

Table of Contents

Dealing With The New Normal of Tariffs Series

What's Happening

This series explains what's changing and how to plan, not panic.

It's 2025 and U.S. trade is rupturing the old ways of doing business between countries. As a result, the U.S. trade policy changes are reshaping how Canadian solopreneurs import, export, and price their products ... sometimes overnight. 

New to tariffs? Start with the Primer.

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Whether you think you can or you think you can't, you're right.

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Cash Management Strategies To Protect Your Margins

Protect Your Money

Tariffs squeeze margins by raising costs on supplies, packaging, parts, and shipping ... sometimes overnight. These strategies help you preserve cash flow and stay compliant while costs shift.

The Tariff Series explains what's changing. This series shows how to protect your business margins while it does.

Tracking tariffs already? Jump to the autopilot system.

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Table of Contents

From Financial Stress to Success Series

Protect Yourself

Financial stress doesn't just affect your bottom line. It clouds your judgment, drains your energy, and can lead to business-threatening avoidance. This series gives you practical strategies for managing both the numbers and the emotions that come with them, so you can build a business that sustains you instead of burning you out.

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Quick FAQ

Whether you call yourself a solopreneur, a freelancer, a small business owner, or self-employed, here are common questions about how tariffs affect you ... even if you don't import directly.

What are tariffs?

Tariffs are extra charges on goods that cross a border. With recent U.S.–Canada changes in policy and relationship, these fees can pop up fast and raise costs. Even if you never import or export, tariffs can still touch your business through higher prices on supplies, packaging, parts, or shipping ... and that affects your margins.

Here's an example of what could happen. A Toronto Etsy seller sources packaging from a U.S. supplier. In March, her per-unit cost jumped 35%. She didn't import anything ... but her supplier did, and passed the tariff along.

I don’t import. Do tariffs still matter?

Yes. Even if you don't import directly from the U.S., your suppliers may raise prices on what you buy as they pass their import fees along. 

Be aware that faced with increased costs and reduced profit margins, some businesses may be forced to downsize or lay off workers. So watch packaging, parts, and shipping fees to see if they are indirect import fees are affecting your budget.

Are tariffs the same as GST/HST?

No. Tariffs/duty are border charges. GST/HST is tax. Plan for both when you set prices.

The economic reality? When the U.S. Administration uses tariffs primarily for revenue generation rather than trade protection, they function essentially as a consumption tax paid by domestic businesses and consumers. This revenue can offset other tax reductions, but tariffs are less efficient than VAT (value added tax) systems at raising revenue while creating more economic disruption.

More >> VAT vs. Tariffs: Why the Economics Matter to You

Will my U.S. customers pay more on delivery of my physical goods? I also sell services/digital products. Do tariffs affect that part of my business?

Physical Goods
The Trump Administration ended duty free shipping (de minimis) on August 29, 2025. This affects all Canadian businesses shipping to U.S. customers. So yes, your U.S. customers will pay more on the delivery of physical goods.

Canada Post reported on August 27, 2025 that every package under $800 going from Canada to the U.S. must have proof that duties were paid before the shipment can be accepted for delivery.

More >> What Just Changed and Why It Matters

Services and Digital Products
Services and digital products are not directly impacted by de minimis. However your costs like tools and equipment may rise if suppliers face tariffs.

What records should I keep?

Invoices, shipping bills, and any duty/tax receipts—one folder per order. Be sure to also include supplier certificates, classification rulings, and CBSA correspondence. Keep for at least seven years.

Create and maintain an 'origin binder' (physical or digital) per SKU (stock keeping unit) with bills of materials and supplier origin attestations so recertifying for CUSMA is quick.

Keep documentation for at least seven years.

More >> Your Action Plan For Handling Tariffs

Tracing History - Trade Tariff Developments Archive

This section provides context and analysis of significant trade policy shifts as they unfold, helping you understand the changing Canada-U.S. trade relations. 

Jump To >> Latest Update: Canada's Trade Strategy Takes Shape October 24, 2025

October 8, 2025
Trade Talks Update - The Direction Becomes Clearer

One day after Prime Minister (PM) Carney visited the Oval Office ... and after months of silence, we're finally getting some public signals about where trade talks are heading.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick says there's no going back to the old free-trade system and that America wants to assemble all its own cars (though they'll still import parts). He's clear about the U.S. pursuing an "America first, Canada second" approach, though Canada can still benefit from proximity in other industries - just not car assembly.

PM Carney agrees the era of deepening North American integration is over - "nostalgia isn't a strategy," he said. While CUSMA remains our best deal with the U.S., expect bilateral sector-by-sector agreements alongside it.

Both sides agree on one thing: the old system isn't returning. For Canadian small businesses, this means the uncertainty continues, but at least the range of possibilities is becoming clearer.

Learn More >> Globe and Mail No going back to former free trade system, Lutnick says (October 8, 2025)

August 22, 2025
Canada Removes Some Retaliatory Tariffs While U.S. Expands Coverage

Lots of tariff news on this summer Friday!

U.S. Tariffs Expand: The U.S. expanded tariffs to 407 steel derivative products - "from wind turbines to baby strollers - catching even industry associations off guard".

Canada's Move: Meanwhile, Prime Minister Carney announced Canada is removing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products that comply with CUSMA rules, while keeping tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos. Trade negotiations are resuming.

What This Means for Your Business:

  • If you import CUSMA-compliant U.S. goods, your tariff costs may drop. I'm thinking the cost of orange juice will come down.
  • New derivative products face tariffs you might not have expected. Some purchases are about to get way more expensive!
  • Steel, aluminum, and auto sectors remain under pressure. Expect more changes to come as negotiations continue and CUSMA negotiations are set to begin earlier than required.

This shows why small business owners need good tracking systems and flexible supply chains even more than in the past. Trade rules are changing faster than ever.

Learn more >> CBC News Canada removing retaliatory tariffs on CUSMA-compliant U.S. goods (August 22, 2025)

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