Canada-U.S. Tariff Timeline 2025-2026

Tracking Trade Changes for Canadian Solopreneurs

Published October 16, 2025  |  Updated February 27, 2026

WHAT'S IN THIS ARTICLE
In Effect Now & Next Steps | Trade Tariff Timeline | U.S. Tariff Authorities Explainer| Key Terms | New Normal For Trade | FAQ  Recent Developments | Tariff Series Index

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Is This Page For You?

• Who this page is for? Homed-based Canadian solopreneurs (and micro business owners)
• What this page is about? Major Canada–U.S. tariff and trade measures affecting Canada in 2025–2026
• What you'll get? A sector-by-sector timeline plus a short “what to do next” checklist

There are a lot of different types of U.S. in play. Here is an explainer to help sort it all out.

QUICK LINKS
IEEPA | Section 122 | Section 130 | Section 201 | Section 232 | Section 301 | Section 338 | Antidumping | Countervailing

IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act)

IEEPA is for "emergency tariffs / emergency trade restrictions".

What is it?
IEEPA is a U.S. law that gives the President broad power to regulate economic transactions after declaring a national emergency tied to an 'unusual and extraordinary' threat with a foreign source. It requires a declared national emergency and is often used in sanctions contexts; tariff-like import measures are a less typical but possible use-case.

How does it show up as 'tariffs'?
IEEPA is not a traditional tariff statute like Section 232 or Section 301. But it can be used to impose sweeping import restrictions and conditions (including import surcharges, licensing requirements, prohibitions, or other controls) that function like tariffs or can effectively restrict trade. In practice, it’s an emergency powers tool that can reshape trade quickly.

Why it matters?
This is the authority typically referenced when the U.S. announces broad, non-sectoral tariffs or trade restrictions justified as an emergency/national threat rather than an industry-by-industry trade case. This is the legislation the Trump administration used to impose a 'fentanyl' emergency. The Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration's IEEEPA tariffs on February 20, 2026.

Section 122 (Trade Act of 1974)

Section 122 is for “temporary across-the-board import surcharge”.

What is it?
Section 122 authorizes the President to impose a temporary, broad import surcharge (or quotas) in response to serious U.S. balance-of-payments problems (i.e., external financial pressure such as currency/outflows/overall trade balance stress).

How does it differ from other tariff tools?

• It’s not aimed at punishing “unfair trade” or a specific industry.
• It’s designed as short-term, macroeconomic emergency relief.
• It can be broad-based (covering many imports at once), unless exemptions are written in.
• It has a 150 days limit without congressional approval and is capped at 15%.

Why does it matter for Canada?
If invoked, it can hit Canadian exports even when there’s no Canada-specific trade dispute because it’s a “whole-economy” tool. This is the legislation the Trump administration pivoted to when the Court struck down IEEEPA tariffs.

Section 130 (Tariff Act of 1930)

Section 130 is for “retaliatory duties for discriminatory treatment”.

What is it?
Section 130 is a retaliatory authority that allows the U.S. to impose additional duties on goods from a country that is found to discriminate against U.S. commerce (for example, through discriminatory duties, charges, regulations, or treatment that disadvantages U.S. goods or trade).

How is it typically framed?
It’s a “mirror response” tool. If another country applies discriminatory burdens, the U.S. can respond with additional duties intended to counter or deter that discrimination.

Why does it matter for Canada?
If the U.S. characterizes a Canadian policy as discriminatory against U.S. firms or products, Section 130 is one legal pathway the U.S. could cite to justify retaliatory tariffs.

Section 201 (Trade Act of 1974)

Section 201 is for “global safeguard tariffs/quotas”.

What is it?
Temporary tariffs/quotas when a surge of imports causes serious injury to a U.S. industry. No “unfair trade” finding is required.

Why does it matter?
Safeguards can apply even to allies and can be broad (global).

Section 232 (Trade Expansion Act of 1962)

Section 232 is for “national security tariffs”.

What is it?
Section 232 allows the U.S. to impose tariffs, quotas, or other import limits if the U.S. Department of Commerce finds that imports of a product threaten to impair U.S. national security.

How does it work? (in plain English)
Commerce investigates a product category (steel, aluminum, timber/lumber, etc.). If Commerce makes a national security finding, the President can impose import restrictions which are often a percentage tariff or a quota.

Why does it matter for Canada?
Section 232 can cover close allies as well as competitors. Canada sometimes negotiates exemptions, quotas, or alternative arrangements, but an exemption is not automatic. This is the legislation used by the Trump administration to impose the sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, auto and auto parts, trucks and commercial vehicles, copper, lumber, furniture, kitchen cabinets.

Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974)

Section 301 is for “retaliation for unfair trade practices”.

What it is?
It allows the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to investigate and respond to foreign policies deemed “unjustifiable,” “unreasonable,” or “discriminatory” that burden U.S. commerce. Remedies often take the form of targeted tariffs.

Why does it matter for Canada?
If a conflict expands beyond border measures into policy disputes (digital taxes, procurement, regulation), Section 301 is one of the most common U.S. retaliation tools.

Section 338 (Tariff Act of 1930)

Section 338 is for discrimination against U.S. commerce

What it is?
A more aggressive retaliation provision that can authorize additional duties when a foreign country discriminates against U.S. commerce.

Note:
Historically significant, less commonly used in modern practice, but it’s one of the “big” statutory retaliation levers.

Antidumping Duties (AD) (Tariff Act of 1930)

What is it?
It allows for extra duties to be imposed when imported goods are sold in the U.S. at less than “normal value” (often described as below home-market price) and materially injure a U.S. industry.

Why does it matter for Canada?
Commonly arises in sector disputes (e.g., softwood lumber historically, though that includes both AD and CVD findings).

Countervailing Duties (CVD) (Tariff Act of 1930)

What is it?
It allows for extra duties to be imposed to offset subsidies provided by a foreign government to its exporters when those subsidized imports injure a U.S. industry.

Why does it matter for Canada?
Frequently paired with AD in major Canada-U.S. trade disputes.

I've done my best to explain the following trade terms based on my research, but I'm not an import/export expert. If you're actually importing steel, definitely check with a customs broker who knows the ins and outs of these regulations.

What are FTA and non-FTA countries?

FTA (Free Trade Agreement) countries are nations that have signed trade agreements with Canada, providing preferential access to Canadian markets. For steel imports, this category includes:

• FTA countries (non-CUSMA): South Korea, European Union members, United Kingdom, Japan, Vietnam, and others with bilateral or multilateral trade agreements.
• CUSMA countries: United States and Mexico (these have separate treatment under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement).

Non-FTA countries are nations without free trade agreements with Canada. Key examples include China, Turkey, India, Russia, Brazil.

The distinction matters significantly for steel imports, as FTA countries receive more favorable quota allocations and tariff treatment than non-FTA countries.

What are tariff-rate quotas (TRQs)?

A tariff-rate quota (TRQ) is a two-tiered import control system for certain steel products. It works by allowing a specific quantity of steel to enter the country each quarter at a lower tariff rate. Once imports exceed this quarterly threshold, any additional steel brought in during that quarter faces a higher surtax.

This mechanism serves a dual purpose. It protects Canada's domestic steel industry from excessive foreign competition (mainly due to global steel overproduction) while ensuring Canadian businesses still have access to the steel they need. The government has based these quota levels on 2024 import volumes.

How do import permits work with TRQs?

All steel imports to Canada require a permit, but there are two types:

1. Shipment-specific permits allow imports at normal tariff rates (if within quota). It must be applied for up to 15 days before shipment arrival. These permits are issued on a first-come, first-served basis until the country's quota is exhausted.

2. General Import Permits (GIP) are used when shipment-specific permits are unavailable or quota is exhausted. Steel imported under GIP automatically faces the 50% surtax.

All importers must also declare the Country of Melt and Pour (COM) and have an active Export and Import Permits Act (EIPA) registration number from Global Affairs Canada.

For Example - Non-FTA Country (China):
A Canadian manufacturer importing steel from China in Q1 2026 faces a quarterly quota of 20% of their 2024 volumes. If they imported 1,000 tonnes in 2024, their Q1 quota is 200 tonnes. They must apply for shipment-specific permits at least 15 days before arrival. If they secure permits for their first 200 tonnes, they pay normal tariffs. Once China's quota is exhausted, they must use a General Import Permit for any additional steel, automatically triggering the 50% surtax.

Example - FTA Country (South Korea):
A construction company importing from South Korea has a quarterly quota of 75% of 2024 volumes. If they imported 2,000 tonnes in 2024, their Q1 2026 quota is 1,500 tonnes. With shipment-specific permits secured in advance, they avoid the surtax on the first 1,500 tonnes. Any imports beyond this, or if permits aren't available, require a General Import Permit and face the 50% surtax.

You'll see TRQs referenced in the steel-related entries below.

This series explains what's changing and how to plan, not panic.

It's 2025 and U.S. trade is rupturing the old ways of doing business between countries. As a result, the U.S. trade policy changes are reshaping how Canadian solopreneurs import, export, and price their products ... sometimes overnight. 

New to tariffs? Start with the Primer.

Whether you call yourself a solopreneur, a freelancer, a small business owner, or self-employed, here are common questions about how tariffs affect you ... even if you don't import directly.

This section provides context and analysis of significant trade policy shifts as they unfold, helping you understand the changing Canada-U.S. trade relations. 

Jump To >> Latest Update: Bank of Canada Governor says Rules-based Trade With U.S. Is Over January 28, 2026

January 16, 2026
Canada-China Trade Deal Signals Major Shift

Prime Minister Carney announced a 'preliminary but landmark' agreement with China on Friday, January 16, 2026, marking Canada's first major trade deal since taking office and a significant de-escalation in Canada-China tensions.

What Changed

• Canola relief: China will drop canola seed duties to 15% by March (down from 76%). Canola meal, peas, lobster, and crab will have 'anti-discrimination' tariffs removed from March through year-end.
• EV tariff-quota: Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese EVs annually at 6.1% tariff (down from 100%). Carney called this 'a return to 2023 levels' and about 3% of the Canadian market.
• Investment expectations: Carney indicated discussions about Chinese investment in Canadian EV production.

Why This Matters to You
If you're in Prairie agriculture (especially canola), this is immediate relief. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe praised the deal as showing "what can be achieved when federal and provincial governments work together."

If you're in Ontario manufacturing or auto supply chain, Ontario Premier Doug Ford strongly criticized the deal, warning it gives China "a foothold" that could "hurt Canadian workers" and risk "closing the door on Canadian automakers to the American market".

If you're watching your costs, cheaper EVs might help, but the broader impact on Canadian manufacturing jobs remains unclear.

The Bigger Picture
This deal is part of Carney's strategy to double non-U.S. exports by 2030 and boost China exports by 50%. It comes just weeks after Carney admitted a broader U.S. trade deal "is no longer within reach" and as CUSMA review negotiations loom this year.

Carney told reporters Canada's relationship with China has become "more predictable" than with the U.S., noting "candid and consistent dialogue" with Beijing. Meanwhile, Trump called CUSMA "irrelevant" this week.

What We Don't Know Yet

• How this affects CUSMA negotiations.
• Whether Chinese investment in Canadian EV production materializes.
• How U.S. responds (Trump already cancelled talks with Canada in October over Ontario's ads). The Hill reports that his initial reaction to the deal is, "That’s OK. That’s what he should be doing. I mean, it’s a good thing for him to sign a trade deal. If you can get a deal with China, you should do that."
• Long-term impact on Canadian auto sector.
• Details on canola oil and pork (not mentioned in the deal).

My Takeaway
This is a significant pivot, but it's "preliminary" for a reason. The provincial split (Moe supportive, Ford critical) reflects how differently this hits various regions and sectors. If your business touches canola, seafood, pork, or auto manufacturing, you'll want to watch how this unfolds over the next few months - especially as CUSMA review talks begin. So stay tuned.

Read the full news reports:
CBC News: [Canada reaches tariff-quota deal with China on EVs, canola] (January 16, 2026)
The Hill: [Trump says Canada should do trade deals with China] (January 16, 2026)

October 24, 2025
Canada's Trade Strategy Takes Shape

Prime Minister Carney spoke to University of Ottawa students on Wednesday, October 22, 2025. CBC News reported that during his pre-budget speech, he told students to prepare for "challenges" and "sacrifices" and said transforming Canada's economy won't happen "easily or in a few months".

He acknowledged the changing nature of the Canada-U.S. trade relationship and announced the government aims to double non-U.S. exports over the next decade. Regarding the budget, he indicated that a climate competitiveness strategy, a new immigration plan, and an international talent-attraction strategy would be presented.

Carney also acknowledged the trade situation will slow some government initiatives. "There are certain demands or desires to expand in different areas, and we won't be able to move as quickly as we otherwise would."

My Takeaway Quote: "If we don't act now, the pressures will only grow ... I will always be straight about the challenges that we have to face and the choices we must make. And to be clear, we won’t transform our economy easily or in a few months — it will take some sacrifices and it will take some time."


The following day, the Toronto Star reported that Prime Minister Carney admitted a broader trade agreement with Trump "is no longer within reach" and that auto tariff talks will likely be punted to next year's CUSMA review. The trade team is currently working on sector-by-sector negotiations for steel, aluminum, "elements" of energy, and "a few other components". In French, the Prime Minister said Americans are only interested in sectoral agreements with all countries, not just Canada.

Carney also issued what the Toronto Star called a "veiled threat", saying if Canada cannot get fair access to the U.S. market, Ottawa will "change the terms" of its commercial relationship with the U.S. "but we're not there yet". He added: "If we ultimately don't make progress in these various sectors, we're going to do what's necessary to protect our workers ... starts with building, taking the control there, but it's also not having unfair access to our market if we don't have access to another market."

Later that afternoon (October 23, 2025), the federal government announced Stellantis and GM would no longer be eligible for the full tariff exemption on autos shipped to Canada. Their exemptions would be reduced to 50% and 24.2% respectively as they failed to maintain Canadian-based production and failed to complete plans that were already in place.

That night (October 23, 2025), the Trump administration announced it was cancelling trade talks with Canada, citing the 'Ronald Reagan' ads being run in the U.S. by the Ontario government.

Read the full news reports: 
CBC News: Carney says Canada should prepare for 'sacrifices' (October 22, 2025) 
Toronto Star: Mark Carney admits broader trade deal won't happen anytime soon (October 23, 2025)

October 8, 2025
Trade Talks Update - The Direction Becomes Clearer

One day after Prime Minister (PM) Carney visited the Oval Office ... and after months of silence, we're finally getting some public signals about where trade talks are heading.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick says there's no going back to the old free-trade system and that America wants to assemble all its own cars (though they'll still import parts). He's clear about the U.S. pursuing an "America first, Canada second" approach, though Canada can still benefit from proximity in other industries - just not car assembly.

PM Carney agrees the era of deepening North American integration is over - "nostalgia isn't a strategy," he said. While CUSMA remains our best deal with the U.S., expect bilateral sector-by-sector agreements alongside it.

Both sides agree on one thing: the old system isn't returning. For Canadian small businesses, this means the uncertainty continues, but at least the range of possibilities is becoming clearer.

Learn More >> Globe and Mail No going back to former free trade system, Lutnick says (October 8, 2025)

August 22, 2025
Canada Removes Some Retaliatory Tariffs While U.S. Expands Coverage

Lots of tariff news on this summer Friday!

U.S. Tariffs Expand: The U.S. expanded tariffs to 407 steel derivative products - "from wind turbines to baby strollers - catching even industry associations off guard".

Canada's Move: Meanwhile, Prime Minister Carney announced Canada is removing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products that comply with CUSMA rules, while keeping tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos. Trade negotiations are resuming.

What This Means for Your Business:

• If you import CUSMA-compliant U.S. goods, your tariff costs may drop. I'm thinking the cost of orange juice will come down.
• New derivative products face tariffs you might not have expected. Some purchases are about to get way more expensive!
• Steel, aluminum, and auto sectors remain under pressure. Expect more changes to come as negotiations continue and CUSMA negotiations are set to begin earlier than required.

This shows why small business owners need good tracking systems and flexible supply chains even more than in the past. Trade rules are changing faster than ever.

Learn more >> CBC News Canada removing retaliatory tariffs on CUSMA-compliant U.S. goods (August 22, 2025)

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