Current Events: Trade & Tariffs for Canadian Solopreneurs

Updated October 6, 2025

Overview 2025 U.S.-Canada trade conflict

TRADE TIMELINE: KEY DATES

• March 4, 2025 - U.S. Tariffs Take Effect
  35% on Canadian goods (originally 25%, increased Aug 1); 10% on energy; CUSMA-compliant goods exempt
• March 4, 2025 - Canadian Phase 1 Retaliation
  25% Canadian tariffs on $30B on targeted U.S. goods (removed Sept 1)
• March 7, 2025 - CUSMA Exemption Established
  Canadian goods meeting CUSMA origin rules remain tariff-free
• March 12, 2025 - Global Steel/Aluminum Tariffs
  50% U.S. tariffs on steel/aluminum (originally 25%, increased June 4)
• March 13, 2025 - Canadian Steel/Aluminum Retaliation
  25% Canadian tariffs on U.S. steel/aluminum (still in effect)
• March 13, 2025 - Canadian Consumer Goods Retaliation
  25% Canadian tariffs on $14B miscellaneous U.S. products (removed Sept 1)
• April 3, 2025 - Global Auto/Auto Parts Tariffs
  25% U.S. tariffs on vehicles and parts; only applies to non-CUSMA content (still in effect)
• April 5, 2025 - Global U.S. 'Liberation' Tariffs
  10% baseline reciprocal tariff on all U.S. imports (global, excluding Canada and Mexico)
• April 9, 2025 - Canadian Auto Retaliation
  25% Canadian tariffs on non-CUSMA U.S. vehicles (still in effect)
• June 27, 2025 - Canadian Steel Quotas
  50% surtax on steel imports from non-FTA partners without permits
• August 1, 2025 - US Tariff Escalation
  U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods increased from 25% to 35%
• August 1, 2025 - Global Copper Tariffs
  50% U.S. tariffs on copper products
• August 29, 2025 - Global De Minimis Elimination
  All packages under $800 now subject to duties; transitional flat rates $80-$200 or ad valorem
• September 1, 2025 - Canadian Tariff Reduction
  Canada removed $44B in retaliatory tariffs; kept steel, aluminum, auto tariffs
• September 16, 2025 - USCMA Public Consultations
  US government begins 45 days of public consultations with hearings planned for November.
• September 17, 2025 - T-MEC Public Consultations
  Mexican government calls for 60 days of public comment ahead of schedule 2026 review.
• September 19, 2025 - CUSMA Public Consultations
  Federal government begins a few weeks of consultations with companies, unions, Indigenous leaders, and other stakeholders to prepare for 2026 CUSMA renegotiation. Canada already held formal public consultations between August 17 - October 31, 2024. They published a 'What we heard' report in December 2024 / January 2025.
• October 1, 2025 - US Tariff Escalation
  Announced September 26, 2025 that U.S. will tariff pharmaceutical drugs 100%. While he said October 1st, the date of implementation is not clear until Executive Order is issued ... so watch for it!
• October 14, 2025 - US Tariff Escalation
  U.S. Section 232 additional 10% tariffs on imported timber and lumber. This is in addition to the U.S. anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs of about 35% already faced. In addition, there will be a 25% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and upholstered furniture. The executive order does not mention an exemption under CUSMA.
• November 1, 2025 - US Tariff Escalation on Trucks
  25% global tariff on medium and heavy-duty trucks takes effect (announced October 6, 2025). This tariff applies to vehicles including delivery trucks, garbage trucks, public utility trucks, transit and school buses, tractor-trailers, and heavy-duty vocational vehicles; even those meeting CUSMA's 64% North American content threshold.
  
• January 1, 2026 - US Tariff Escalation
  U.S. Section 232 tariffs increase to 30% for upholstered wooden products and 50% for kitchen cabinets and vanities.
• July 1, 2026 - CUSMA / USCMA / T-MEC Review
  Scheduled review of trade agreement

This timeline focuses on the 2025 U.S.-Canada trade conflict. Other ongoing trade disputes affecting Canadian businesses include longstanding U.S. softwood lumber duties (escalated to over 35% in August 2025 as part of the current trade conflict) and China's retaliatory tariffs on Canadian canola, potash, and other agricultural products (imposed in response to Canada's support for U.S. EV policies and other geopolitical tensions).

For complete details and source documents, refer to:

Baker Tilly: Trade Timeline Analysis
Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP: U.S.–Canada Tariffs Timeline